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Annual Conference
ERF 19th Annual Conference: Economic Development and the Rise of Islamist Parties
3 March 2013 - 5 March 2013

The Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) has evolved over the past 18 years to become one of the most important regional platforms for ERF and non-ERF affiliates to discuss frontier thinking about economic development, learn from one another and interact with international scholars. The upcoming conference comes at a time when the region is undergoing significant political transformation and will focus in its plenary sessions on a pertinent issue: Economic Development and the Rise of Islamist Parties. The plenary sessions will feature renowned economists and opinion makers and the conference will be held in Kuwait, March 3-5, 2013. It is expected to host more than 200 participants.

Besides the plenary sessions, there will be six parallel sessions, involving the presentation of more than 50 papers under the themes of: macroeconomics, finance, labor and human development, international economics, microeconomics and institutional economics. Parallel session papers are selected on the basis of a rigorous refereeing process in response to an open call for papers, hence their diversity. The closing session celebrates the six winners of what has become a regional institution: the Best Paper Award.

II. Plenary Sessions
The political upheavals which swept ERF’s region in early 2011 ushered in Islamist political parties in Egypt, Tunisia, and potentially elsewhere in the region. Deposed political regimes were generally perceived to have failed to deliver acceptable standards of living to the majority of their populations, denying them freedom and social justice in the meantime. There has been much discussion as to why the Islamist movements surged to the fore, and just as many questions about the likely development policies and outcomes of their ascendance to power. The fact that the track record of similar parties in other regions is mixed makes it doubly important to deal with questions about the conditions which would render this political development successful. This year’s conference is intended to do just that, primarily by attempting to understand the causes behind the rise of Islamist parties, the conditions under which they succeed and the likely outcome in Arab Spring countries.

Plenary Session 1: The Causes of the Arab Uprisings and the Rationale for the Rise of Islamist Parties to Power
This session will examine the root causes of the Arab uprisings and the rationale for the rise to power of Islamist parties. On the causes of the uprisings, the speakers will address such questions as: were the uprisings due to the failing of previous regimes to provide decent jobs for a growing population, to reduce poverty and to curb inequality and corruption? Or were the root causes social in nature, influenced by a growing middle class combined with limited social mobility? Was it due to political oppression practiced by the former regimes? What role did the West play in the process, if any? On the rise of Islamic political parties, history tells us that the region has been traditionally devout, but most countries have also been officially secular for centuries. So why did the uprisings lead to the rise of Islamist parties? Was it the power of ideology and organization? Do they offer a reform agenda that is likely to address the inadequacies of the previous regimes? How much of their success is due to the failure of other opposition parties to reach out to citizens? Finally, what do we know about the rise of such movements and their fates in other Islamic states?

Plenary Session 2: Comparative Economic Performance in Islamist-Governed Countries
This session will focus on what happens comparatively when Islamist parties attain power. Panelists will examine such questions as: do these parties develop defining characteristics as far as economic development policies are concerned? Are they monolithic? Are the resulting development outcomes similar? What might explain the differences in outcomes across such diverse countries as Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey? What lessons can we draw from this comparative analysis for Arab Spring countries?

Plenary Session 3: Outlook and Possible Scenarios
This session will contemplate the likely scenarios as a result of the Islamist party rule. Besides elaborating on their views on the likely political settlements in different countries in the region, the speakers will address such questions as: after decades in opposition, how well are Islamist political parties likely to manage the economy? Which path are they likely to follow; that of Turkey, Pakistan or Iran? To what extent are they likely to adjust their initial positions given the prevailing balance of power in different countries? And will they be able to strike a healthy balance between the neo-liberal economic programs they have espoused with the need for social justice and income distribution? Finally, what are the prospects for power transitions in the future?

III. Parallel Sessions
There will be six parallel sessions, covering the following broad areas of economics: 1. Macroeconomics 2. Finance 3. International Economics 4. Labor and Human Development 5. Microeconomic and sectoral studies 6. Institutional Economics/Governance

For further inquiries, please contact Hoda Azmi, Conference Manager, ERF, at 21 Al-Sad Al-Aaly, Dokki, Giza, Egypt. Fax (+202) 333 18 604; E-mail:

Download Annual Conference Agenda

Presented Papers
Institutional Economics/Governance
Women’s Access to Justice in the Middle East & North Africa: An Empirical Investigation
Nadereh Chamlou, Juan Botero, Alejandro Ponce, Maliheh Birjandi, Leila Hanafi, and Bilgehan Gokcen
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Terrorism and Integration of Muslims: Evidence from Moroccan and Turkish Immigrants in the Netherlands
Ahmed Elsayed and Andries de Grip
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Different Arab Springs? The Political Elite and De Facto Political Power
Mina Baliamoune Lutz
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Who are the Democrats? Leading Opinions in the Wake of Egypt’s 2011 Popular Uprisings
Ishac Diwan
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Partis Islamistes, Pouvoir et Etat Profond dans le Monde Arabe: Analyse en Termes du Principal-Agent
Brahim Elmorchid
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Islam, Institutions and Economic Development
Abdalla Zouache
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Socio-demographic determinants of the support for Turkey’s Justice and Development Party
Cem Baslevent
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Modeling Political Performance of Islamist & Islamist- Rooted Parties in Turkey
Ali T. Akarca
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Political Patronage and Economic Opportunity: The Case of Vertical Integration in the Egyptian Clothing Industry
Amirah El-Haddad
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Investor Herds and Regime-Switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab Stock Markets
Shawkat Hammoudeh, Mehmet Balcilar and Riza Demirer
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Extreme Risk Management in Oil and Natural Gas Markets
Riadh Aloui, Mohamed Ben Aïssa, Shawkat Hammoudeh, and Duc Khuong Nguyen
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Ownership, Technical Efficiency and the Cost of Bad Loans: Evidence from the Tunisian Banking Industry
Mohamed El Arbi Chaffai and Sémia Lassoued
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Does Islamic Banking Development Favor Macroeconomic Efficiency? Evidence on the Islamic Finance – Growth Nexus
Laurent Weill and Laurent Gheeraert
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Expected Utility Optimal Decisions Based On Zero Inflation And Interest Financing Contracts
Fathi Abid and Jihene Rebai
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Accounting Information System of Tunisian SMEs: Complexity, Determinants and Impact on Financial Performance
Yosra Nouir and Sami Mensi
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Competitiveness in Turkish Banking and its Post-Crisis Performance: 2002-2004 vs 2008-2011
Nurhan Davutyan and Canan Yildirim
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The Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Bank Efficiency: Evidence from Bank Consolidation in Egypt
Malak Reda
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Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks on Loan Portfolio Quality
Inessa Love and Rima Turk Ariss
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Sector Developments in Egypt
Hoda Youssef and Santiago Herrera
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Fiscal Policy, Trade Surpluses and Exchange Rates in a Situation of Trade Liberalization and Crisis: The Case of Morocco
Brahim Mansouri
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Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Performance in Sudan
Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla
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Identification of Current Account Deficit in Turkey
Nergiz Dincer and Pinar Yasar
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The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Disequilibrium in Egypt
Hoda Selim
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The Dutch Disease Effect in a High vs Low Oil Dependent Countries
Jean-Pierre Allegret and Tahar Ben-Khodja
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Natural Resource Abundance and Structural Change: The Dutch Disease in Algeria
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri, Mohamed Benbouziane, and Abderrahim Chibi
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International Economics
The Growth of Turkey in World Trade: Opportunity or Threat for MENA Countries?
Marouane Alaya and Imed Mezghani
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Banking and Monetary Crises: Impacts on Exports of MENA Countries
Mohamed Ben Abdallah and Zouheir Bouchaddakh
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Trade Determinants and Potentials of Syria: Using Gravity Model with an Estimation of Syrian Crisis Impact on Exports
Zaki Mehchy, Rabie Nasser, and Marc Schiffbauer
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Moroccan Non-Tariff Measures’ Impact on Domestic Firms: A Booster through Deeper Integration or Protection Measure?
Patricia Augier, Olivier Cadot, and Marion Dovis
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Trade Volume and Economic Growth in the MENA Region: Goods or Services?
Fida Karam and Chahir Zaki
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Approche de Négociation dans le adre d’un Accord de Libre Echange Régional Liant des Pays du MENA
Nabil Boubrahimi
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Contribution of Structural Change to Productivity Growth: Evidence from Tunisia
Mohamed Ali Marouani and Rim Mouelhi
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Business Cycle Synchronization in Euro Area and GCC Countries: A Wavelets-GA Approach
Mustapha Djennas, Mohamed Benbouziane and Meriem Djennas
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Labor and Human Development
Reseaux Sociaux et Insertion Sur le Marche du Travail en Algerie
Moundir Lassassi and Christophe Muller
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Les Inégalités dans le Domaine de l’éducation au Maroc: Une Approche par l’économétrie Spatiale
Aomar Ibourk and Jabrane Amaghouss
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On the Two-Way Relation Between Marriage and Work: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan
Ragui Assaad and Rana Hendy
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Evaluating the Impact of Ishraq: A Second Chance Program for Out-of- School Rural Adolescent Girls in Upper Egypt
Asmaa Elbadawy
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Heyneman-Loxely Effect Revisited in the Context of MENA Countries: Analysis Using TIMSS 2007 Database
Donia Smaali Bouhlila
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Does Longer Compulsory Education Equalize Educational Attainment by Gender, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Background?
Murat G. Kirdar, Meltem Dayioglu Tayfur and Ismet Koc
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Preferences and Exposure to Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Palestine
Elisa Cavatorta and Ben Groom
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Bringing It all Back Home: Return Migration and Fertility Choice
Simone Bertoli and Francesca Marchetta
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Wages and On-the-Job Training in Tunisia
Christophe Muller and Christophe J. Nordman
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The Egyptian Economy Post Revolution: Sectoral Diagnosis of Potential Strengths and Binding Constraints
Amr Hosny, Magda Kandil and Hamid Mohtadi
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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy
Paul Cashina, Kamiar Mohaddes, Maziar Raissi and Mehdi Raissi
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Proxy Means Tests for Targeting Subsidies Scheme in Iran
Mohammad Bakhshoodeh
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Productive Performances and Spatial Spillover: Evidence from the Egyptian Manufacturing Sector Using a Spatial Correlation Model
Mohamed Ben Jemaa
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Agricultural Water-Use Efficiency in a Global Perspective: The Case of Iran
Gholam Reza Soltani
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Agricultural Subsidies in the GCC between Cost and Benefit: The Case of Kuwait
Faten Jabsheh, Weam Benhbehani, Noura AbdulMalek and MohamedChemingui
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A Long Run versus Short Run Study of Climate Change Effects on Agriculture Crop: Evidence from Tunisia
Younes Ben Zaied
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Young People and the Digital Divide in Egypt
Mona Badran and Antonio R. Andrés
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